SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161820
MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-161915-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0945
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0120 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN VA AND SRN MD
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 161820Z - 161915Z
A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS ERN VA AND SRN MD
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED HAIL SHOULD BE THE
MAIN THREATS WITH THE ACTIVITY. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NWD ACROSS ERN NC
INTO ERN VA WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWWD FROM A SFC LOW ACROSS WCNTRL VA INTO WRN NC.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE FOOTHILLS OF THE APPALACHIAN
MTNS ALONG AND JUST TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT DUE TO SFC HEATING AND
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. ALTHOUGH RUC ANALYSIS SUGGEST INSTABILITY
REMAINS VERY WEAK ACROSS THE REGION...REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS SHOW
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR IN PLACE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION
OF A 55 TO 65 KT MID-LEVEL JET. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL AS
INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
..BROYLES.. 05/16/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...
36947690 37127606 37397568 37947540 38267562 38377599
38447707 38287777 38017826 37057931 36527861 36647770
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