MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0946

ACUS11 KWNS 161907
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161906
FLZ000-GAZ000-162000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0946
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0206 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 161906Z - 162000Z

AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NRN FL BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL
AND A WW APPEARS UNLIKELY ATTM.

A CONVECTIVE LINE IS CURRENTLY ORGANIZING FROM TALLAHASSEE SWWD INTO
THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THIS LINE SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NRN
FL PENINSULA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE REACHED ABOUT 7.5 C/KM ACROSS PARTS OF
NRN FL AND FURTHER STEEPENING IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
PROFILES EVIDENT ON REGIONAL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AN ISOLATED
WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY DEVELOP. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY
WEAK WITH MLCAPE VALUES BELOW 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE MD AREA. THIS
SHOULD LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS
KEEPING ANY WIND DAMAGE THREAT MARGINAL.

..BROYLES.. 05/16/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

29468117 28958225 29128304 29668357 30498346 30828244
30468137

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