SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171828
MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-172000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0947
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0128 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LOWER MI...NRN WI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 171828Z - 172000Z
A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 1 TO
3 HOURS ACROSS NRN WI AND NRN LOWER MI. THE STRONGER CELLS WILL HAVE
A POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED
ATTM.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER
CNTRL ONTARIO WITH A 70 TO 80 KT MID-LEVEL JET LOCATED IN NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE UPPER-MS VALLEY. SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MID-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MCD AREA PROVIDING LIFT
COMBINED WITH SFC HEATING FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WEAK...STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR EVIDENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET MAX AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A THREAT FOR HAIL WILL
EXIST WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND HIGH SFC
TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS MAY ALSO RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS WITH A FEW OF
THE STORMS.
..BROYLES.. 05/17/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...
45608405 44598409 43878695 44218960 45259226 46159283
46549249 46739165 46259008 45628823 45528678 45908537
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment