MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1017

ACUS11 KWNS 250401
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250400
TXZ000-OKZ000-250500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1017
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1100 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NWRN/N-CNTRL TX...SWRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 351...355...

VALID 250400Z - 250500Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
351...355...CONTINUES.

ISOLATED MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL/STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE WITHIN MCS EVOLVING ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS/BIG
COUNTRY OF N TX INTO SWRN OK. RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTED MOST INTENSE
LINEAR STRUCTURE FROM TILLMAN COUNTY OK TO STEPHENS COUNTY TX THEN
MORE MULTICELLULAR STORMS BACK WWD THROUGH SCURRY/MITCHELL COUNTIES
AS OF 0355Z. WELL-DEFINED GUST FRONT IS CLEARLY EVIDENT WELL OUT
AHEAD OF THE N/S-ORIENTED LINE...AND THIS HAS RESULTED IN ONLY
STRONG MEASURED WIND GUSTS SO FAR /REF 46 KT AT SPS AT 0349Z AND 38
KT AT RPH AT 0325Z/. FARTHER W...LATEST SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS
PLACES AN E/W-ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM AROUND 30 S BGS TO 35 N
BWD. WITH PRIMARY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WELL NORTH OF THIS AND
MULTICELLULAR IN NATURE...ONLY MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL IS EXPECTED
WITHIN STRONGER CORES.

AS LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT N THROUGH THE
NRN PLAINS WHILE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE W
COAST...OVERALL TENDENCY SHOULD BE FOR MID-LEVEL WINDS TO SLOWLY
BACK AND WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY
VEER. THE NET RESULT WILL BE A WEAKENING OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
WITH INCREASED CAPPING PROVIDING A MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.

..GRAMS.. 05/25/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

34419790 33189781 32279829 32169968 32270082 32630111
33050087 33269975 33339893 34049894 34529904 34969875
34919831 34779810

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