SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250805
KSZ000-250900-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1018
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0305 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL AND SE KS
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 356...
VALID 250805Z - 250900Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 356 CONTINUES.
TORNADO THREAT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY MARGINAL. THOUGH AN ISOLATED
TORNADO REMAINS POSSIBLE...THE PRIMARY THREAT APPEARS TO HAVE
TRANSITIONED TO ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WITH SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS
NEAR WICHITA KS. WW 356 EXPIRES AT 09Z. ANOTHER WW WILL PROBABLY NOT
BE NECESSARY UNLESS CONVECTIVE TRENDS DICTATE OTHERWISE.
EARLY THIS MORNING A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR THE
KS-OK BORDER. A PERSISTENT 40-45 KT SLY LOW LEVEL JET IS RESULTING
IN SUFFICIENT LIFT ABOVE THE BOUNDARY FOR RENEWED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE ATMOSPHERE IN THIS REGION REMAINS MODERATELY
UNSTABLE WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG.
SURFACE TO 2 KM HODOGRAPHS ARE SUFFICIENT FOR A THREAT OF LOW LEVEL
MESOCYCLONES AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO. HOWEVER...STORMS ARE LIKELY
SOMEWHAT ELEVATED ABOVE A STABLE LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE WHICH IS
LIKELY LIMITING EFFECTIVE STORM RELATIVE HELICITY AND SUGGEST LARGE
HAIL SHOULD REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT.
..DIAL.. 05/25/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ICT...
38079629 37569668 37269723 37199770 37359804 37729816
38149763 38299662
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