SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281954
TXZ000-NMZ000-282130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1072
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM...CNTRL NM
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 281954Z - 282130Z
AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS ECNTRL NM AND FAR
WEST TX. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE
CONVECTION STRENGTHENS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WW MAY BE NEEDED
ACROSS PARTS OF NM THIS AFTERNOON.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS HAS A LOW IN NWRN NM WITH BACKED WINDS ACROSS
MOST OF ERN NM. SFC DEWPOINTS IN SE NM ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F
AND THIS MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NNWWD INTO CNTRL NM OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INITIATE ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE
MOIST AXIS AS INSTABILITY INCREASES EXPANDING SLOWLY EWD INTO ERN NM
AS SHOWN BY SEVERAL SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS. MODERATE VERTICAL
SHEAR IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH LATEST OBJECTIVE RUC
GUIDANCE SHOWING 30 TO 40 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR ALSO EVIDENT ON THE
EL PASO MORNING 12Z SOUNDING. THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR COMBINED WITH
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL.
A FEW ROTATING STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS NCNTRL
AND NE NM WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS A BIT STRONGER AND LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR SHOULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED
WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER CELLS.
..BROYLES.. 05/28/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...
31490354 30830392 30970475 32130550 33960630 35290665
36520669 36480515 34240431 32760392
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