SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300640 COR
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-300730-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1092
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0140 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN KS...ERN THROUGH EXTREME S-CENTRAL
NEB...WRN IA.
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 388...391...
VALID 300640Z - 300730Z
CORRECTED FOR AREA
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 388...391...CONTINUES.
REMAINDER WW 388 SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 07Z.
WHILE STG TO MRGLLY SVR TSTMS STILL ARE POSSIBLE OVER WW
AREA...TORNADO POTENTIAL HAS DIMINISHED SUCH THAT ADDITIONAL
ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. MEANWHILE...OVER ADJACENT WW
391...SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WILL EXIT SERN PORTIONS WW BEFORE
SCHEDULED 08Z EXPIRATION...AND THIS WW MAY BE CLEARED ACCORDINGLY
AND/OR CANCELED.
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY -- OFTEN COINCIDING WITH LEADING
EDGE OF ONGOING CONVECTION -- FROM PROWERS COUNTY CO ENEWD NEAR
RSL-CNK-FNB LINE. BOUNDARY MAY BE SHUNTED SWD AND SEWD LOCALLY AS
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MOVES OVHD. MODIFIED TOP RAOB AND RUC FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW STG SBCINH OF 100 J/KG OR GREATER ALREADY PRESENT
OVER MUCH OF WW AREAS...AND CAPPING FOR SFC PARCELS IS FCST TO
INCREASE WITH TIME IN CONJUNCTION WITH DIABATIC COOLING...BENEATH
700-850 MB LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY RELATIVELY WEAK LAPSE RATES. THIS
PROCESS SHOULD REDUCE POTENTIAL FOR STG-SVR DOWNDRAFTS FROM EXISTING
TSTMS TO REACH SFC...AS WELL AS LIMITING STRENGTH OF FORCED ASCENT
ALONG LEADING EDGE OF OUTFLOWS. ELEVATED TSTMS ARE FCST TO CONTINUE
DEVELOPING N OF BOUNDARY...HOWEVER...AS PARCELS ARE FORCED
ISENTROPICALLY TO LFC OFF NW EDGE OF MOIST/50-60 KT LLJ SEEN IN
VWP/PROFILER DATA. SOME OF THESE TSTMS MAY BECOME SUFFICIENTLY
WELL-ORGANIZED TO PRODUCE SVR HAIL ON SPORADIC/ISOLATED
BASIS...AMIDST 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES.
..EDWARDS.. 05/30/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...
38909917 39679808 40709759 40909898 41159920 41779854
42269619 41669528 40579496 40609582 39979531 39639533
39619555 39229560 39099668 39179760
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