SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300717
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-300845-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1093
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0217 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS IA...NRN MO...EXTREME NERN KS...SMALL PART
OF NWRN IL.
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 389...392...
VALID 300717Z - 300845Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 389...392...CONTINUES.
AREA OF FAVORABLE NEAR-SFC BASED INSTABILITY IN SUPPORT OF TORNADO
POTENTIAL IS BECOMING WEAKER AND SMALLER IN SPATIAL EXTENT. THIS
PARTICULARLY IS TRUE ACROSS WW 389 WHERE COMBINATION OF CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW AND DIABATIC COOLING HAS STABILIZED BOUNDARY LAYER
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER MUCH OF WRN/CENTRAL IA...BEHIND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY STILL EXIST WITH MESOVORTICES ASSOCIATED WITH
BOW/LEWP FORMATIONS OVER PARTS OF S-CENTRAL/SERN IA...N-CENTRAL/NERN
MO AND PERHAPS NWRN IL NEAR MS RIVER. CONTINUE VALID PORTIONS WW
392. WW 389 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 08Z IF
CONVECTION CONTINUES OVERALL DOWNWARD TENDENCY IN INTENSITY...EXCEPT
WHERE LOCAL EXTENSIONS MAY BE NEEDED IN S-CENTRAL IA AHEAD OF
LEADING-EDGE CONVECTION.
AS OF 07Z...SFC OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS ANALYZED FROM JOHNSON-MARION
COUNTIES IA...THEN WAVY/DIFFUSE SWWD ACROSS DONIPHAN COUNTY KS.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE SHUNTED SEWD IRREGULARLY BY LOCALIZED OUTFLOW
SURGES FROM ONGOING CONVECTION. STRENGTH OF THESE OUTFLOWS
GENERALLY WILL BE REDUCED WITH TIME AS SFC WARM SECTOR AIR MASS
CONTINUES GRADUAL DIABATIC COOLING/DESTABILIZATION...RESULTING IN
EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS BECOMING ROOTED PROGRESSIVELY HIGHER ABOVE
SFC WITH TIME. ELEVATED/MRGL HAIL REGIME OVER WRN IA AND ERN NEB --
DISCUSSED IN MORE DETAIL IN MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1092 -- ALSO MAY
AFFECT PORTIONS WW AREAS.
..EDWARDS.. 05/30/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ILX...DVN...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...
39409497 39399557 39659552 39669529 39979528 40589573
40539492 41149495 41799515 41819561 42069564 42159535
42479536 42509253 42319253 42339045 41519024 40279046
40309233 40259269 39799287 39629334 39609381 39769384
39749429 39749457 39539459
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