SWODY1
SPC AC 021258
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 AM CDT MON JUN 02 2008
VALID 021300Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN/CNTRL PLNS E/SE
INTO THE LWR MO AND MID MS VLYS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SW MT AND FAR ERN ID...
...SYNOPSIS...
PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THROUGH TUESDAY AS A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES IN BOTH THE SRN AND NRN STREAMS SLIGHTLY FLATTEN TX/NRN
MEXICO UPR RIDGE. IN THE NRN BRANCH...IMPULSE NOW OVER CNTRL MT
SHOULD TURN E ACROSS THE DAKS LATER TODAY/TONIGHT AS WA UPR LOW
CONTINUES ENE INTO CNTRL MT. IN THE SRN BRANCH...WEAK DISTURBANCE
NOW IN AZ SHOULD REACH CO THIS EVENING...AND CONTINUE ENE ACROSS
KS/NEB EARLY TUESDAY.
AT THE SFC...LEE LOW EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER SE CO TODAY AND
REDEVELOP NE ACROSS KS TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED WSW FLOW
ACROSS THE RCKYS. SETUP WILL ALLOW DIFFUSE WARM/STATIONARY FRONT
NOW OVER OK/SW KS TO REFORM NEWD IN AN ARC ACROSS NRN/ERN KS BY LATE
THIS AFTN. THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE GENERALLY NE ACROSS MO
TONIGHT...ULTIMATELY MERGING WITH A SEPARATE BOUNDARY BECOMING
ESTABLISHED OVER NRN IL/LWR MI EARLY TUESDAY.
...NRN/CNTRL HI PLNS INTO SD/NEB TO SRN MN...
CLOUDINESS WILL LIMIT SFC HEATING...AND DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION
OVER MUCH OF SD/NEB TODAY. FARTHER W...STRONGER HEATING
SHOULD OCCUR OVER WRN NEB/SD INTO ADJACENT PARTS OF THE
CNTRL/NRN HI PLNS. COUPLED WITH ONGOING MOISTURE RETURN AND STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON NRN FRINGE OF UPR RIDGE...EXPECT
SBCAPE TO RANGE FROM 1000-2500 J/KG FROM NW SD/NE WY SWD INTO WRN
NEB.
HEATING...WEAK UPSLOPE COMPONENTS AND ASCENT WITH DISTURBANCES IN
BOTH THE NRN AND SRN STREAMS SHOULD SUPPORT AFTN STORM DEVELOPMENT
OVER ERN MT AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN CO/WRN SD. OTHER
STORMS MAY FORM A BIT LATER IN NE CO...AND ALONG BOUNDARIES LEFT
FROM OVERNIGHT MCSS.
40-50 KT WSWLY MID-LVL FLOW ATOP 20+ KT SLY LLJ JET...WITH 50+ KT
CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR...WILL FAVOR RAPID EVOLUTION INTO SUPERCELLS.
COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY
LARGE HAIL...ESPECIALLY IN WRN/CNTRL NEB. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH
CURVATURE WILL SUPPORT TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY NEAR WARM FRONTAL
SEGMENTS LATER THIS AFTN/EVE. AS THE LLJ JET STRENGTHENS AND VEERS
THIS EVENING...EXPECT STORMS WILL REMAIN STRONG/SVR OVER NEB/SD AS
THEY CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR TWO MCSS. THIS CONVECTION MAY IN TURN
MERGE WITH ACTIVITY EVOLVING FROM STORMS IN KS/MO AND IA. MODERATE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY NORTH OF WARM FRONT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
CONTINUED RISK FOR SVR HAIL AND POSSIBLY DMGG WIND THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY.
...LWR MO VLY INTO MID MS VALLEYS...
SUSTAINED WAA N AND E OF NE-DEVELOPING WARM FRONT MAY SUPPORT
PERIODIC RENEWAL OF TSTMS ON SERN SIDE OF ONGOING COMPLEX NOW IN SRN
NEB. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD E/SE INTO NRN KS...IA...AND
NRN/CNTRL MO WITH TIME. MOST OF THE CONVECTION LIKELY WILL BE
ELEVATED AND COULD YIELD LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...HEATING MAY YIELD A
FEW SPOTS OF NEAR-SFC-BASED STORMS BY AFTN IN ERN KS/WRN MO...ALONG
NRN AND ERN PERIPHERY OF EML CAP ASSOCIATED WITH TX UPR RIDGE.
PRESENCE OF STRONG POTENTIAL INSTABILITY /MUCAPE TO 3000 J PER
KG/...INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...AND SELY SFC WINDS NEAR
WARM FRONT SUGGEST THAT A CONDITIONAL RISK WILL EXIST FOR TORNADOES
IN THIS AREA IF SFC-BASED STORMS DO INDEED FORM.
TONIGHT...VEERING/STRENGTHENING OF LLJ...CONTINUED NE MOVEMENT OF
WARM FRONT...AND ENHANCED ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM SRN STREAM IMPULSE
SHOULD SUPPORT UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS IN IA/MO INTO AN MCS.
THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY E INTO CNTRL IL BY 12Z
TUESDAY...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING RISK SVR HAIL AND POSSIBLY WIND.
...ERN ID/MT/NRN WY...
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RATHER LIMITED BY CNTRL/ERN U.S.
STANDARDS...GIVEN FAIRLY STEEP LOW TO MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE /PW .75- 1.00 IN/ WILL EXIST TO YIELD MODERATE
DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE ID/MT RCKYS TODAY.
WITH THE REGION ALSO SUBJECT TO INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD
OF WA UPR LOW...SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN ID/WRN MT BY AFTN. MODERATE...DEEPLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WSW FLOW WILL FAVOR STORM ORGANIZATION INTO ONE OR
TWO FORWARD-PROPAGATING BANDS. THESE MAY YIELD DMGG WIND AND
MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AS THEY CONTINUE GENERALLY E ACROSS SRN MT AND
NRN WY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.
...FL INTO SRN GA/SC...
A WEAK UPR TROUGH...IN PART RELATED TO IMPULSE THAT WAS OVER KS/OK
SUNDAY MORNING...WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY 500 MB TEMPERATURES OF -8 TO
-10 C OVER GA/SC AND FL TODAY. COUPLED WITH STRONG SFC HEATING ...A
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...NUMEROUS SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES ON WHICH TO
FOCUS ASCENT...SETUP COULD SUPPORT SCTD STRONG PULSE STORMS WITH
ISOLD DMGG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.
..CORFIDI/HURLBUT.. 06/02/2008
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