Monday, June 2, 2008

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 020546
SWODY2
SPC AC 020543

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1243 AM CDT MON JUN 02 2008

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OH VALLEY WWD INTO
KS...

...SYNOPSIS...

LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE WHILE UNDERGOING
AMPLIFICATION AS A STRONG...ERN PACIFIC UPPER JET STREAK DIGS SEWD
INTO THE GREAT BASIN WITH RESULTANT HEIGHT FALLS AND TROUGH
FORMATION OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. FARTHER E...MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING THAT SEVERAL LOWER AMPLITUDE
IMPULSES WILL TRANSLATE EWD FROM THE NRN PLAINS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. MEANWHILE...A LOWER LATITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD
FROM THE LOWER CO VALLEY INTO THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE LOW INITIALLY OVER NERN KS WILL DEVELOP
ENEWD ALONG W-E ORIENTED WARM OR STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS
THE NRN OH VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES. THIS BOUNDARY WILL TRAIL WSWWD
FROM THIS LOW ACROSS SRN KS/NRN OK TO DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS.

...OH VALLEY WWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS...

CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING TUESDAY
MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF IA/IL/IND...DRIVEN LARGELY BY WARM THERMAL
AND MOISTURE ADVECTIONS OCCURRING ALONG NOSE OF 40-50 KT SWLY LLJ.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION
WITH MIGRATORY LLJ WITH A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL WITH THE MOST INTENSE
STORMS.

A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY
STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN THE WAKE OF THE INITIAL ELEVATED
STORMS WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 2000-3000 J/KG. DIURNAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON FROM VICINITY OF
SURFACE LOW OVER NERN MO/SERN IA EWD ALONG WARM FRONT INTO NRN/CNTRL
PORTIONS OF IL/IND. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE/STRONG
INSTABILITY...50-55 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND RELATIVELY STRONG
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES. STORMS MAY TEND TO
GROW UPSCALE INTO A FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS WITH THE SEVERE THREAT
SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY EVENING
INTO NIGHT.

ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE SWWD ALONG TRAILING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CNTRL MO INTO KS WITHIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG. APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH INTO THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS MAY ENCOURAGE THE THIS
DEVELOPMENT WWD ACROSS KS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. 40-45 KT
OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS
WITH A THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A FEW
TORNADOES.

FINALLY...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER KS/NEB TUESDAY
NIGHT AS STRENGTHENING LLJ ENHANCES LIFT N OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
SOME LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.

..MEAD.. 06/02/2008

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