SWOD48
SPC AC 020748
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0248 AM CDT MON JUN 02 2008
VALID 051200Z - 101200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...D4 /THU JUN 5TH/...
DESPITE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN CONFIGURATION...THE ECMWF AND GFS
REMAIN CONSISTENT IN PROGRESSING A DYNAMIC UPPER TROUGH NEWD THROUGH
THE CNTRL U.S. PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP NNEWD FROM THE
CNTRL PLAINS INTO UPPER MS VALLEY WITH SECONDARY LOW FORMATION OVER
THE CNTRL OR SRN PLAINS. AIR MASS TO THE S OF SYSTEM WARM FRONT AND
E OF TRAILING COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO BECOME MOIST AND
UNSTABLE. THIS INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND
DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK FROM PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY SWD
INTO SRN PLAINS.
...D5 /FRI JUN 6TH/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH
ASSOCIATED SYSTEM COLD FRONT PUSHING EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
MID MS VALLEY. PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
UNSTABLE AS D4...BUT THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND DYNAMIC FORCING
SHOULD SUPPORT THE CONTINUATION OF AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER EVENT
INTO THE GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU.
...D6 /SAT JUN 7TH/ THROUGH D8 /MON JUN 9TH/...
THE ECMWF/GFS AND MEDIUM-RANGE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS LARGELY AGREE THAT A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE WRN
STATES. A LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BECOME ALIGNED IN SW-NE
FASHION FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES ALONG THE SRN
FRINGE OF STRONGER MIDLEVEL FLOW ALOFT. WHILE SOME SEVERE WEATHER
IS POSSIBLE ALONG THIS FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS
INTO UPPER MS VALLEY...DETAILS REGARDING ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN LARGE-SCALE FLOW PATTERN REMAIN QUITE
UNCERTAIN. THEREFORE...NO ADDITIONAL AREAS WILL BE INCLUDED IN THIS
FORECAST.
..MEAD.. 06/02/2008
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