SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010620
TNZ000-KYZ000-010815-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1130
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0120 AM CDT SUN JUN 01 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS MIDDLE/ERN TN...S-CENTRAL KY.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 010620Z - 010815Z
INCREASING ORGANIZATION HAS BEEN NOTED WITH COMPLEX OF TSTMS
DISCUSSED IN EARLIER MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1128...AS THIS ACTIVITY
MOVES SEWD ABOUT 40 KT ACROSS PORTIONS SRN KY AND NRN TN. PEAK IN
INTENSITY MAY BE UNDERWAY ATTM...WITH DAMAGING GUSTS BEING MAIN
THREAT. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS LENGTH OF PEAK INTENSITY GIVEN
INCREASING STABILITY EVIDENT WITH SEWD EXTENT AS DESCRIBED BELOW.
MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INCREASING SBCINH AND DECREASING
MLCAPE WITH SEWD EXTENT ACROSS WRN TN...WITH SHORT-TERM PROGS
SUPPORTING MAINTENANCE OF THIS TREND THROUGH NEXT 3-4 HOURS.
HOWEVER...WLY 850 MB FETCH OF APPROXIMATELY 20 KT IS PART OF
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WAA REGIME AHEAD OF ACTIVITY THAT HELPS TO
MAINTAIN FAVORABLY BUOYANT PROFILE ABOVE NEAR-SFC STABLE LAYER.
MODIFIED BNA RAOB AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT STABLE LAYER
MAY REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY SHALLOW...WITH EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS
ROOTED JUST ABOVE SFC...TO PERMIT OCCASIONAL STG/DAMAGING GUSTS.
MARGINALLY SVR HAIL ALSO IS POSSIBLE...THOUGH DOMINANT MODE WILL BE
LINEAR/MULTICELLULAR GIVEN WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
-- E.G. 0-3 KM SRH LESS THAN 100 J/KG AND 30-35 KT EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR MAGNITUDES.
..EDWARDS.. 06/01/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...
36188818 36578718 36948673 37308656 37078579 36728490
36188444 35428488 35038594 35338726 35948808
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