SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020613
NEZ000-020745-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1150
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0113 AM CDT MON JUN 02 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN/CENTRAL NEB.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 020613Z - 020745Z
ELEVATED MCS -- WITH OCCASIONAL LARGE HAIL FROM EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS
-- NOW IS FCST TO MOVE/REDEVELOP SSEWD AND SEWD ACROSS MORE OF
WRN/CENTRAL NEB DURING REMAINDER PRE-DAWN HOURS. LARGE HAIL WILL
REMAIN LIKELY WITH THIS ACTIVITY FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS AT LEAST.
THEREFORE WW IS LIKELY WITHIN THE HOUR.
MODIFIED 00Z 850 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS WELL DEFINED WARM FRONTAL ZONE
LIFTING NWD ACROSS NRN KS AND SWRN NEB. RUC/NAM-KF/ECMWF GUIDANCE
REASONABLY SHIFTS THIS FRONTAL ZONE FARTHER NWD ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL
NEB...WITH WRN PORTION SOMEWHAT MORE DIFFUSED...ALLOWING ACTIVITY TO
ACCESS PLUME OF RELATIVELY RICH MOISTURE IN 850-700 MB LAYER. THIS
PROCESS IS EXPECTED INITIALLY OVER W-CENTRAL THEN CENTRAL NEB...AS
PART OF STG ELEVATED WAA REGIME NOW EVIDENT IN VWP FROM RADAR N OF
LBF. WHEN ANIMATING TIME SERIES OF FCST SOUNDINGS...THIS
MOISTENING/WARMING VERTICALLY JUXTAPOSES WITH STEEP MID-UPPER LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND YIELDS MUCAPES 1000-2000 J/KG. MID-UPPER LEVEL
WINDS INCREASE WITH SWD EXTENT ACROSS WRN NEB AS WELL...CONTRIBUTING
TO FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR STORM ROTATION...AND
THEREFORE...LOCALLY ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL.
FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 60-70 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES ACROSS
MOST OF THIS AREA...IN SUPPORT OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.
..EDWARDS.. 06/02/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...CYS...
42070317 42660312 42910201 42790017 42029868 41349851
40829904 40740018 41100197 41810296
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