Monday, June 2, 2008

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1151

ACUS11 KWNS 020942
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020941
KSZ000-NEZ000-021145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1151
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0441 AM CDT MON JUN 02 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS W-CENTRAL THROUGH S-CENTRAL/SERN
NEB...N-CENTRAL AND NERN KS.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 418...

VALID 020941Z - 021145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 418
CONTINUES.

INITIAL PRIMARY SUPERCELL THAT PRODUCED REPORTS OF 1 INCH HAIL JUST
W THEDFORD NE HAS DEVOLVED/MERGED INTO LARGER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER
DEVELOPING AROUND IT. NET EFFECT IS INITIALLY
AREAS SE OF WW ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL ISSUANCE OF ANOTHER
WW...AS HAIL THREAT CONTINUES WITH DEVELOPING CENTRAL NEB MCS MOVING
SEWD. STG-SVR WIND THREAT ALSO MAY INCREASE AS COMPLEX INCLUDES
MORE LINEAR/BOWING STRUCTURES AND MOVES OVER HIGHER THETAE AIR AT
AND JUST ABOVE SFC.

WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION -- NOW DEVELOPING INVOF ELEVATED WARM
FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS S-CENTRAL NEB AND EXTREME N-CENTRAL KS -- MAY
FORM/MERGE INTO DEVELOPING MCS AS LATTER CONTINUES TO MOVE SEWD
ACROSS REGION. VWP/PROFILER DATA AROUND 09Z SHOWS SELY 30-40 KT LLJ
OVER MUCH OF THIS REGION...WITH SPEEDS TAPERING EWD ACROSS
CENTRAL/ERN NEB. WITH TIME...850 MB FLOW IS FCST TO VEER MORE TO
SLY ACROSS THIS REGION...RESULTING IN SOME NWD ACCELERATION OF WARM
FRONTAL SEGMENT OVER S-CENTRAL NEB...AND MOIST ADVECTION AND
STRENGTHENED ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS LATTER REGION SWD INTO
N-CENTRAL KS. THIS PROCESS SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASING BUOYANCY --
E.G. MUCAPES UP TO AROUND 1500 J/KG AS LOW LEVELS MOISTEN...IN TURN
ENABLING ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION OF TSTMS...BOTH
WITHIN PORTIONS OF ONGOING MCS AND TO ITS S.

..EDWARDS.. 06/02/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...GLD...

40720109 41600213 42400163 41919900 40419672 39639669
39119770 39979968 40310027

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