SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030912
IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-031115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1171
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0412 AM CDT TUE JUN 03 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN SD...ERN NEB...WRN IA...EXTREME NWRN
MO.
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 427...428...
VALID 030912Z - 031115Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
427...428...CONTINUES.
WWS MAY BE REPLACED WITHIN THE HOUR. GEN SUBSIDENCE BEHIND MCV
SHOULD INHIBIT POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER
NWRN PORTIONS ORIGINAL WW BEFORE 14Z SCHEDULE EXPIRATION...AND SWRN
SD CONVECTION IS NOT PROGGED TO AFFECT NERN NEB/SWRN SD REGION UNTIL
THEREAFTER.
AS OF 845Z...MCV WAS EVIDENT IN IR AND REFLECTIVITY ANIMATIONS JUST
S FSD...MOVING ESEWD 150-20 KT. PROJECTED TRACK OF STRONGEST LARGE
SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS OVER PROGRESSIVELY MORE
STABLE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS ACROSS NRN IA...SUPPORTIVE OF TSTMS BUT
NOT NECESSARILY WELL ORGANIZED SVR RISK. THEREFORE...PRIND SVR
POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH FROM W-E ACROSS FAR NRN IA. HOWEVER...SVR
HAIL THREAT MAY BE MAINTAINED WITH TSTMS CONFORMING TO SRN PORTION
OF MAIN BAND OF ASCENT S-SSE OF MCV.
FARTHER S...BKN CLUSTER OF TSTMS ON BOTH SIDE OF I-80...MOVING EWD
FROM GRI-HSI AREA...WILL MOVE OVER FAVORABLY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR
MASS WITH SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 60S/70 F..AND 850 MB DEW POINTS 13-16
DEG C. MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW STG SBCINH ASSOCIATED
WITH CAPPING AT BASE OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. HOWEVER...IN PART
BECAUSE OF RICHNESS OF THETAE BELOW THAT LAYER...EFFECTIVE INFLOW
PARCELS ARE ROOTED IN RICH MOISTURE AT OR JUST ABOVE SFC. RESULT IS
MLCAPES 2000-2500 J/KG. NEGATIVE/OFFSETTING FACTOR FOR SVR POTENTIAL
IS WEAKNESS OF LOW LEVEL STORM-RELATIVE FLOW...GIVEN SUBSTANTIAL
WLY/NLY ABSOLUTE VECTOR WIND COMPONENTS EVIDENT IN LOWER TROPOSPHERE
IN RUC SOUNDINGS AND VWP DATA. THIS FACTOR ALSO LIMITS SIZE OF LOW
LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...EVEN THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AT LEAST IS MRGL
WITH 35-45 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES EVIDENT.
..EDWARDS.. 06/03/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...GID...
43289684 43269544 42929421 42329344 41409376 40559446
40199554 40419755 42159752
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