SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042251
INZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-050015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1208
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0551 PM CDT WED JUN 04 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN IA...NRN IL AND NRN IND
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 042251Z - 050015Z
A SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS FAR ERN IA...NRN IL AND NRN IND
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A TORNADO ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE
HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS INCREASE IN
COVERAGE. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY THIS EVENING
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST TO WEST FROM
ERN IA ACROSS NRN IL AND NRN IND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S F
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. RUC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CAPPING
INVERSION HAS WEAKENED OVER THE LAST HOUR AND THIS MAY ALLOW
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE AND MOVE NNEWD ACROSS THE MCD
AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES EVIDENT ON
REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS AND THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY SUGGEST
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...VEERED
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS BELOW 6 KM MAY ALSO PROMOTE
LINEAR DEVELOPMENT WITH WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. ALTHOUGH THESE SHOULD
BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS STRONG ENOUGH FOR AN
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AS WELL.
..BROYLES.. 06/04/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN...
39588714 40498916 40659099 41899123 42208921 41298628
40318526 39678608
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