SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132302
NYZ000-PAZ000-140030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1365
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0602 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 132302Z - 140030Z
AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND /AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL/ THREAT MAY
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO
CENTRAL NY. A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED OWING TO THE ISOLATED
NATURE/RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION OF THE SEVERE RISK.
A BROKEN BAND OF STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD/ACROSS THE I-390 CORRIDOR IN WESTERN NY OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH THESE STORMS HAVING DEVELOPED A MODEST
COLD POOL. EVEN IN A WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT /15-20 KT OR
LESS 0-6 KM/...COLD POOL PROPAGATION INTO A WARM /80S F/ AND
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /1500 J/KG MLCAPE/ WILL SUPPORT A
CONTINUANCE OF AN ISOLATED/PULSE-TYPE SEVERE THREAT OVER THE NEXT
1-2 HOURS. A 42 KT WIND GUST WAS RECENTLY /2235Z/ MEASURED AT
BUFFALO NY. ISOLATED/SHORT DURATION NATURE OF THE THREAT WILL LIKELY
PRECLUDE A WATCH ISSUANCE.
..GUYER.. 06/13/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...
42957871 43397814 43307612 42227623 41937704 42157782
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