MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1367

ACUS11 KWNS 140111
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140111
KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-140245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1367
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0811 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN OK/NORTHERN AR/SOUTHEAST MO/FAR SOUTHERN
IL/WESTERN KY AND WESTERN/MIDDLE TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 525...

VALID 140111Z - 140245Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 525
CONTINUES.

SEVERE TSTM WATCH 525 CONTINUES UNTIL 05Z ACROSS NORTHERN
AR/SOUTHEAST MO/FAR SOUTHERN IL INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF KY/TN.
PRIMARY RISK REMAINS DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL. DOWNSTREAM OF
WW 525...THE NECESSITY FOR AN ADDITIONAL WATCH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
KY/MIDDLE TN IS UNCLEAR...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE
TRENDS. ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE
ALSO BEING MONITORED ACROSS EASTERN OK/FAR WESTERN AR FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF A WATCH.

AT LEAST 3-4 ELONGATED QUASI-LINEAR BANDS OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF WW 525...ESPECIALLY FROM NORTHERN AR INTO
WESTERN KY BETWEEN THE PADUCAH AND HOPKINSVILLE AREAS AS OF 01Z.
CONTINUAL STORM MERGERS/LINEAR ORGANIZATION AMIDST A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH AROUND 30 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE HAIL THROUGH MID
EVENING.

REGARDING MIDDLE TN/SOUTH CENTRAL KY...STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS MAY SOON
BREACH THE EASTERN PORTION OF WW 525. SHORT TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ADDITIONAL
WATCH. WHILE SOME SEVERE THREAT MAY SPREAD INTO THESE AREAS OVER THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS...WEAK LAPSE RATES/VERTICAL SHEAR OBSERVED IN THE 00Z
NASHVILLE RAOB SUGGESTS A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS LIKELY INTO
MIDDLE TN/CENTRAL KY THIS EVENING...AND THUS THE NECESSITY FOR AN
ADDITIONAL WATCH IS UNCLEAR.

WEST OF WW 525...ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUE JUST NORTH OF I-40
IN EASTERN OK ON THE IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT AS OF 01Z.
WHILE THE 00Z NORMAN RAOB WAS VERY UNSTABLE/WEAKLY CAPPED WITH 3800
J/KG MLCAPE...LIMITED LARGE SCALE SUPPORT AND MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER
CONVERGENCE SUGGESTS STORM COVERAGE MAY REMAIN LIMITED ACROSS
EASTERN OK INTO FAR WESTERN AR THIS EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR ANY UPSWING IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THAT WOULD NECESSITATE
A WATCH.

..GUYER.. 06/14/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA...OUN...

35039666 36099636 36029398 36299195 37049065 37428795
36858633 35378724 35478905 35019127 34809286

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