SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142345
OKZ000-TXZ000-150115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1380
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0645 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE/SWRN OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 532...
VALID 142345Z - 150115Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 532
CONTINUES.
SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER CNTRL/ERN
PORTIONS OF WW 532...GENERALLY MOVING EWD/SEWD AROUND 25 KTS. WITH
AN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY
/2000-2500 J/KG/...THE ENVIRONMENT OVER ERN SECTIONS OF THE WW WILL
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS THROUGH THE EVENING.
THEREAFTER...THE EVOLUTION OF THE CONVECTION BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN.
AIRMASS OVER NRN TX INTO CNTRL OK IS VERY/EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH
SBCAPES FROM 3000 TO 5000 J/KG. NWLY FLOW AT MID-LEVELS /35-40 KTS/
WILL CONTINUE...MAINTAINING FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS
OVER SWRN/CNTRL OK AND NCNTRL TX. THE STRONGEST CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS PRIMARILY OVER
WRN TX/WRN OK PER THE LATEST RUC...WITH THE CONVECTION GRADUALLY
BECOMING ELEVATED AS SURFACE DIURNALLY COOLS. IN THE ABSENCE OF A
STRONG COLD POOL...IT WOULD BE DIFFICULT FOR AN ELEVATED MCS TO MOVE
TOO FAR EAST OF PRESENT WW DESPITE THE EXTREME INSTABILITY. GIVEN
THE CURRENT UNCERTAINTY...THE AREA DOWNSTREAM OF WW 532 WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A WATCH LATER THIS EVENING.
..BRIGHT.. 06/14/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...
35880173 36250146 36370120 36080037 35899974 35139905
34719885 33949930 33819952 33820038 33860080 34260131
34600172 35440192
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