Sunday, June 15, 2008

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1404

ACUS11 KWNS 152336
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152336
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-160100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1404
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0636 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SW KS...WRN/CNTRL OK...AND THE ERN TX
PNHDL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 152336Z - 160100Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT. TIMING
IS A BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT IT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT A WW WILL BE
NECESSARY AT SOME POINT THIS EVENING.

LOWER MOISTURE LEVELS AND WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MAY BE SLOWING/INHIBITING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT NEAR A THERMAL LOW ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. BUT...
OFF TO THE EAST A WEAK SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS MAINTAINING
SEASONABLE HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS AND STRONG TO EXTREME INSTABILITY IN
THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES. IN
FACT...LATEST RUC GUIDANCE INDICATES MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 2000-4000
J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA.

WHILE AT LEAST WEAK INHIBITION REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PLAINS...A WEAK IMPULSE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DIG AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST
KANSAS/WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION.
THIS IS WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS LIKELY TO RAPIDLY
STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET...WHICH MAY
STRENGTHEN UP TO 40-50 KT BY THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME.

THUS...WHILE TIMING MAY BE A BIT UNCERTAIN...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A
RAPID INCREASE IN STORMS THIS EVENING...BOTH IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. AS THIS OCCURS...STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL IN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR BENEATH 30-40 KT NORTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW. AND...
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE CONDUCIVE TO STRONG DOWNBURSTS...AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALONG STRENGTHENING/SURGING COLD POOLS.

..KERR.. 06/15/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

36870043 37420034 37999953 37729812 37379741 36459645
35699637 34759696 34429792 34359887 34449972 35390043

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