MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1513

ACUS11 KWNS 212304
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212304
PAZ000-NYZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-220100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1513
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0604 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...IN...OH...PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 590...

VALID 212304Z - 220100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 590
CONTINUES.

ARC OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO ADVANCE EAST AT 25-35KT ACROSS PARTS OF ERN OH/SRN IN
AND WRN PA THIS EVENING. WINDS APPROACHING SEVERE CRITERIA HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED AT POINTS ALONG THE LINE AND THIS WIND POTENTIAL WILL
LIKELY PERSIST EWD NEXT 1-2 HOURS. IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL WITH THIS LINE...HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LOCAL FLOODING MAY BE A PROBLEM ON THE SWRN FLANK OF THE LINEAR
MCS...ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY FROM NRN KY TO SRN OH.

STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE LINE AND
EXPECT ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTEGRITY AS IT
DEVELOPS EAST TONIGHT. DOWNSTREAM INSTABILITY IS LIMITED AND COUPLED
WITH GENERALLY MARGINAL DEEP-LAYER MEAN FLOW AOB 20KT OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH TIME. AS LIFT ALONG SWRN FLANK
OF THIS SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH HIGH PW/MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY...REPEAT/TRAINING STORMS THIS AREA COULD PRODUCE COPIOUS
CONVECTIVE RAINFALL. GIVEN GENERALLY WEAK FLOW AND CONTINUING
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AS WELL AS WEAK PROPAGATION
VECTORS ATTM...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING MAY BECOME MORE OF A HAZARD
WITH TIME.

..CARBIN.. 06/21/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IND...

42078108 42477983 41907956 40908018 39468101 39148171
39058252 39058316 39148387 38958427 39078475 39038538
39728521 39718380 39898308 40358257

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