SWODY1
SPC AC 100046
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0746 PM CDT WED JUL 09 2008
VALID 100100Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC...
...MIDDLE ATLANTIC...
FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED BAND OF STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
IS PROGRESSING STEADILY EWD ACROSS THE PIEDMONT TOWARD THE SERN
VA/CAROLINA COAST THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG...SUFFICIENT COLD POOL HAS EVOLVED EAST OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN EWD PROPAGATION OF LARGER
MCS. GREATEST THREAT APPEARS TO BE MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE DIURNAL COOLING BEGINS TO AFFECT
UPDRAFT STRENGTH.
...AZ...
CONVECTION THAT INITIATED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF YAVAPAI COUNTY
HAS EVOLVED WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE FOR GUSTY
DOWNDRAFTS. LATEST P/W DATA SUGGESTS VALUES ARE IN EXCESS OF ONE
INCH EXTENDING INTO EXTREME SRN NV. WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
100 F GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION
AS IT SPREADS SWWD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS LA PAZ COUNTY TOWARD THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
...NRN HIGH PLAINS AND ARROWHEAD REGION OF MN...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER THE NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS
FROM SERN WY/NEB PANHANDLE...NWD INTO EXTREME SRN ND. 00Z SOUNDINGS
FROM BOTH RAP AND BIS INDICATE VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES...THOUGH
MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED ACROSS SRN ND. SD IS MUCH MORE BUOYANT
GIVEN THE HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AND MORE FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES.
AS LLJ INCREASES THIS EVENING IT APPEARS A FEW STORMS WILL BRIEFLY
ATTAIN SEVERE LEVELS ACROSS THIS REGION. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS ARE THE MOST LIKELY THREATS...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS CAN CONGEAL
WITHIN WARM ADVECTION REGIME.
DOWNSTREAM...DIURNAL COOLING WILL GREATLY AFFECT UPDRAFT STRENGTH
ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD INTO WRN LAKE MI THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY SHOULD
BECOME ELEVATED IN NATURE...BUT CERTAINLY NOT COMPLETELY DIE OFF
GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE BACKGROUND SUPPORT OF DIGGING SPEED MAX. A
FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME
SPREADING INTO THIS REGION.
..DARROW.. 07/10/2008
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