SWODY1
SPC AC 120045
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0745 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2008
VALID 120100Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN NEB TO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...
...UPPER GREAT LAKES TO CENTRAL PLAINS...
NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EVOLVED ALONG/AHEAD OF SURGING
COLD FRONT FROM THE ARROWHEAD OF MN...SWWD INTO CNTRL MN...WITH MORE
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED ACTIVITY EXTENDING INTO SCNTRL NEB. NRN
CONVECTION IS STRONGLY FORCED/FOCUSED ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY IN
RESPONSE TO INTENSE LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS. OF PARTICULAR
INTEREST ACROSS NRN REGIONS IS THAT ZONE FROM CNTRL MN EXTENDING
INTO NRN WI. LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED WARM
FRONT...ENHANCED BY NELY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
MOVE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WHILE HIGH THETA-E AIRMASS
RESIDES ALONG/SOUTH OF THE WIND SHIFT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINING SUPERCELLS...THOUGH STORM MERGERS
AND GRADUAL CONVECTIVE EXPANSION SUGGESTS ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE
WIND DOMINANT AS MCS EVOLVES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CORES...ALONG
WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ERN MN INTO EXTREME WRN
WI BEFORE OUTFLOW BECOMES MORE PREVALENT.
FARTHER SOUTHWEST...00Z SOUNDING FROM OMA CLEARLY DEPICTS A CAPPED
SFC PARCEL ACROSS SERN NEB...THOUGH QUITE MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE
WITH MLCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 3000 J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
STRUGGLED SOMEWHAT ALONG THE SHARP COLD FRONT...THOUGH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS FROM SRN
NEB INTO SWRN IA. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY
SEVERE RISKS WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT DEVELOPS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.
..DARROW.. 07/12/2008
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