SWODY1
SPC AC 180047
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 PM CDT THU JUL 17 2008
VALID 180100Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS....
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE MID MO VALLEY....
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NRN
LOWER MI....
...NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
UPSLOPE LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING...INTO THE
VICINITY OF THE BIG HORNS IS NOT PARTICULARLY MOIST...BUT ENOUGH SO
TO SUPPORT WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY IN THE PRESENCE OF STEEP
LAPSE RATES. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT MIXED LAYER CAPE IS
UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG ACROSS THIS REGION...AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA...WHERE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING. THIS APPEARS TO BE ENHANCED BY FAVORABLE
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW
DOWNSTREAM OF A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE DIGGING THROUGH THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES. AND...MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR BENEATH 30-40+
KT WESTERLY 500 MB FLOW COULD CONTRIBUTE TO A SMALL ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER AS STORMS CONSOLIDATE THIS EVENING. THIS MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY AN ENHANCED RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...IN
ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...BEFORE CONVECTION WEAKENS
LATER TONIGHT AS UPPER FORCING SPREADS EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MID MISSOURI VALLEY...
NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING /UP TO 40 KTS/ AND VEERING OF A SOUTHERLY
CENTRAL PLAINS LOW-LEVEL JET...EAST OF A SURFACE LOW TO THE LEE OF
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...COULD STILL CONTRIBUTE TO DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL THIS EVENING WITH ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY
NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER. BENEATH WEAK WESTERLY
MID/UPPER FLOW FIELDS...THE TENDENCY SHOULD BE FOR ACTIVITY TO
SLOWLY DEVELOP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR LATE THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
...NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...
WHILE A MORE PROMINENT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE SHIFTS EAST NORTHEAST OF
THE CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER AREA...THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION LATER TONIGHT...A WEAK IMPULSE APPEARS LIKELY TO
OVERSPREAD NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. THIS IS PROGGED TO
BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION...AND A STRENGTHENING /UP TO 40 KT/ WEST SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET. THUS...GIVEN LINGERING INSTABILITY IN THE WARM
SECTOR OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW...POTENTIAL STILL APPEARS TO EXIST FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND SOME HAIL.
..KERR.. 07/18/2008
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