Sunday, July 27, 2008

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 280106
SWODY1
SPC AC 280104

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0804 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008

VALID 280100Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID MO/MID MS VALLEY
REGION...

...MID MO/MID MS VALLEY REGION...
A WELL-ORGANIZED BAND OF STORMS -- NOW WITH A WELL-DEVELOPED MESOLOW
-- CONTINUES MOVING SSEWD AT 40 KT ACROSS NERN MO/W CENTRAL IL.
STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS
MCS OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS. WITH MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS
PERSISTING DOWNSTREAM AND AMPLE SHEAR ALOFT...EXPECT SUBSTANTIAL
SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE SPREADING SSEWD WITH TIME.

OVERNIGHT...STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AS
THEY MOVE SSEWD ROUGHLY ALONG THE MS RIVER...AS A GRADUAL WEAKENING
IN INSTABILITY WITH SSEWD EXTENT COMBINED WITH A SLOW DECREASE IN
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WIND FIELD RESULT IN AN OVERALL ENVIRONMENT
LESS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...WILL EXPAND THE SLIGHT
RISK SSEWD INTO FAR WRN KY/NWRN TN THIS FORECAST.

OTHER STORMS MAY REDEVELOP LATER TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NEB/WRN
IA...AS SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES WITHIN UNSTABLE AIRMASS W OF
ONGOING STORMS. THOUGH MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAK...SHEAR
WOULD SUPPORT MULTICELL ORGANIZATION -- AND THUS SOME THREAT FOR
HAIL AND LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS.

...ERN SEABOARD...
MOST ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD CONVECTION HAS GENERALLY MOVED OFFSHORE
INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC...THOUGH SOME SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION
CONTINUES FURTHER W -- AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ERN NY
SWD ACROSS VA/THE CAROLINAS. THOUGH SOME SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE
WITH A FEW OF THESE STRONGER ONSHORE STORMS...COMBINATION OF DIURNAL
COOLING/STABILIZATION AND THE OFFSHORE SHIFT OF THE STRONGER FLOW
ALOFT SUGGESTS THAT THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED/SHORT-LIVED.

..GOSS.. 07/28/2008

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