SWODY1
SPC AC 300545
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2008
VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND
VICINITY...
...SYNOPSIS...
ASIDE FROM THE REMNANTS OF DOLLY -- FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE
KS/OK REGION...MOST ACTIVE FLOW FIELD ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
NRN THIRD OF THE CONUS. WHILE A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD
CONTINUE SHIFTING EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY...A STRONGER
FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE NWRN CONUS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
FRONT SHOULD EMERGE INTO THE NRN PLAINS LATE...WHICH COMBINED WITH A
WARM FRONT SHIFTING SLOWLY NWD ACROSS SD WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN
AREA OF ENHANCED SEVERE POTENTIAL.
...NRN PLAINS...
WEAK/LINGERING W-E SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS SD MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS
FOR DIURNAL STORM DEVELOPMENT...AS AIRMASS BECOMES MODERATELY
UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND A WEAK VORT MAX MOVES EWD ACROSS
THE NRN PLAINS THROUGH THE LARGER-SCALE RIDGE. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
IS FORECAST TO EXPAND DURING THE EVENING...AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL
AHEAD OF A LARGER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...AND A SLY
LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE. FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR
ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...AND ASSOCIATED
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS. THUS...WILL
MAINTAIN SLIGHT RISK OVER THE MID MO VALLEY REGION...AND EXPAND THE
RISK AREA WWD INTO PARTS OF THE WRN DAKOTAS...WHERE ADDITIONAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT DURING THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
...PARTS OF OK/TX INTO MO...
REMNANTS OF DOLLY WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER PARTS OF KS/OK...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN EXPECTED WITHIN MARGINALLY-UNSTABLE
AIRMASS INVOF THIS SYSTEM. WHILE SLIGHTLY-ENHANCED WIND FIELD ALOFT
WILL PERSIST NEAR THE REMNANT CIRCULATION...WEAK LAPSE RATES SHOULD
AGAIN LIMIT UPDRAFT INTENSITY IN MOST AREAS. STRONGER CELLS MAY BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG/BRIEFLY-DAMAGING WINDS...BUT OVERALL
THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LOW.
...TN/OH VALLEYS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...
SEVERAL SMALL-SCALE FEATURES MOVING EWD THROUGH
BROAD/WEAKLY-CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NERN QUARTER OF THE U.S.
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
AIRMASS DESTABILIZES DIURNALLY. WHILE STRONGEST FLOW WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHERE SOMEWHAT WEAKER INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED...MODERATE FLOW FIELD WILL EXTEND AS FAR S AS THE TN
VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THUS -- A FEW STRONGER CELLS WHICH
DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS/MARGINAL HAIL.
..GOSS/SMITH.. 07/30/2008
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