SWODY1
SPC AC 141607
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1107 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2008
VALID 141630Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MN...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEB...
...NORTHERN MN...
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND ROCKIES TODAY...WITH A FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. ONE FEATURE IS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND WILL AFFECT NORTHERN MN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S OVER MN
WILL COMBINE WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COOL TEMPERATURES
ALOFT TO YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG. PRESENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT STORMS WILL FORM OVER SOUTHEAST
MANITOBA/NORTHWEST MN LATER TODAY AND TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD
LAKE SUPERIOR BY LATE EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR A RISK OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. RATHER HIGH LCL HEIGHTS AND VEERED SURFACE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MITIGATE THE THREAT OF TORNADOES TODAY.
...NEB...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NEB THIS
MORNING...AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WY. A
SURFACE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FROM
NORTHEAST CO INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEB...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A NARROW AXIS OF INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH MLCAPE VALUES
WILL BE NEAR 1500 J/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 35-45 KNOT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES...SUGGESTING THAT HIGH-BASED SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES ARE LIKELY WITH A RISK OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN
STRONGER STORMS.
..HART/JEWELL.. 07/14/2008
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