SWODY2
SPC AC 010513
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1213 AM CDT TUE JUL 01 2008
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE GREAT
LAKES...UPPER-MID MS VALLEY AND CNTRL PLAINS...
...SYNOPSIS...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY SEWD INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES AREAS WEDNESDAY. ATTENDANT FRONT SHOULD
EXTEND FROM NRN WI SWWD TO NRN NEB EARLY WEDNESDAY...THEN ADVANCE
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO SRN KS BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW PERSISTING OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST.
SEVERAL IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE ALONG THE NRN AND ERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
...GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MS VALLEY REGIONS THROUGH THE CNTRL
PLAINS...
COMBINATION OF MOIST ADVECTION AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL LIKELY
CONTRIBUTE TO AN AXIS OF 60S DEWPOINTS IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR BENEATH PLUME OF STEEP 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH
EWD EXTENTION OF THE EML. THESE PROCESSES WILL RESULT IN A ZONE OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS
DURING THE DAY. STRONGER DEEP FORCING ATTENDING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND WEAKER CAP WITH EWD EXTENT INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUGGEST STORMS
MAY BE ONGOING EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THIS REGION. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
INTENSIFY AND ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS
DESTABILIZATION COMMENCES. OWING TO PRESENCE OF EML AND WEAKER LARGE
SCALE FORCING...MUCH OF WARM SECTOR FARTHER SW OVER THE PLAINS WILL
LIKELY BE MORE STRONGLY CAPPED. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
STORMS TO DEVELOP WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT ALONG AND JUST BEHIND
SURFACE FRONT BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. OTHER MORE HIGH BASED STORMS
MAY DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS WRN KS WHERE
DEEPER MIXING WILL EXIST.
WHILE STRONGER WIND PROFILES WILL REMAIN POST FRONTAL...SUFFICIENT
MID-UPPER FLOW WILL OVERLAP WARM SECTOR TO SUPPORT 40+ KT BULK
SHEAR...MAINLY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO UPPER TROUGH FROM THE MS
VALLEY THROUGH GREAT LAKES REGIONS. THE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN
LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL...BUT SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORM
STRUCTURES. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS.
....CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH CNTRL AND NRN ROCKY MOUNTAINS...
STORMS WILL LIKELY ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVER THE CNTRL AND NRN
ROCKIES. WITH NWLY FLOW ALOFT ENHANCED BY SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
SEWD OVER TOP OF UPPER RIDGE...SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO SPREAD SEWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO THE CNTRL
HIGH PLAINS WHERE A MOIST NELY UPSLOPE COMPONENT MAY DEVELOP IN POST
FRONTAL REGION. THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND AND HAIL.
...PACIFIC NW...
WITH LARGE UPPER TROUGH PERSISTING OFFSHORE...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
FOR WEAK IMPULSES TO LIFT NWD INTO THE PACIFIC NW REGION. ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED HIGH BASED STORMS MAY ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYERS WILL SUPPORT A THREAT
OF ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH SOME OF THE STORMS.
...FL...
WITH RICH MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE FL
PENINSULA...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL LIKELY
ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES WITH A
THREAT FOR MAINLY ISOLATED WET DOWNBURSTS.
..DIAL.. 07/01/2008
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