SWODY3
SPC AC 140722
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2008
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...NRN PLAINS TO UPR MS VLY...
NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE OVERALL UPR FLOW REGIME EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN STATES CONTAINING NUMEROUS
LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. ONE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSLATE FROM THE DAKS EARLY WEDNESDAY TOWARD THE UPR GRTLKS REGION
BY NIGHTFALL. WEAK LARGE SCALE RIDGING IN WAKE OF THIS IMPULSE OVER
THE NRN PLAINS/MID-MO VLY WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION INTO WEAK HEIGHT
FALLS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONGER IMPULSE DIGS TOWARD THE NRN
ROCKIES REGION.
IN THE LWR LVLS...WAVY SFC FRONT WILL PROBABLY EXIST FROM THE UPR
GRTLKS REGION WWD ACROSS CNTRL MN AND TO ALONG THE SD/ND BORDER
AREA...THOUGH THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT POSITION. THIS
ZONE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PERIODIC TSTM CLUSTERS THAT COULD PRODUCE
SVR WEATHER.
EARLY DAY ELEVATED TSTM CLUSTER LIKELY ONGOING ACROSS THE ERN DAKS
WILL SPREAD DOWNSTREAM INTO THE UPR GRT LKS REGION DURING THE
DAY...LIKELY REINFORCING THE E-W ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE. SOME OF
THE MORNING STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLD LARGE HAIL ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE STRONG EML.
AIR MASS ALONG/S OF THE FRONT FROM PARTS OF SD INTO CNTRL/SRN MN AND
NW WI WILL LIKELY DESTABILIZE DURING THE AFTN...AND GIVEN A COUPLE
DAYS OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RECOVERY AND MAGNITUDE OF LAPSE
RATES...SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY COULD RESULT. BUT...AIR MASS WILL
PROBABLY BE CAPPED...ESPECIALLY IN THE MO VLY. COMPARATIVELY WEAKER
CAP TOWARD THE UPR MS VLY REGION MAY ALLOW SFC-BASED TSTMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF MORNING ACTIVITY. REGION WILL RESIDE
ALONG SRN EDGE OF 40-50 KTS OF MID-LVL FLOW AND ANY STORM THAT
MANAGES TO FORM WILL BE SEVERE. BUT...AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTIES
WILL PRECLUDE A CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK/HIGHER SVR PROBABILITIES ATTM.
TSTM DEVELOPMENT FARTHER W WILL MORE LIKELY OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE LLJ BACKS AND FOCUSES FROM NEB INTO SD/ND AHEAD OF THE NEXT
IMPULSE. TSTMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY ALONG THE LEE-TROUGH AS STORMS
DEVELOP NEWD FROM THE HIGHER CO TERRAIN...AND LATER ACROSS ND/SD
WITHIN INCREASING LOW/MID-LVL THETA-E ADVECTION. THESE STORMS WILL
ALSO BE CAPABLE OF AT LEAST ISOLD SVR WEATHER. NRN-MOST STORMS MAY
DEVELOP INTO AN MCS AND TRACKING TOWARD WRN MN BY 12Z THURSDAY.
PARTS OF THIS REGION MAY NEED A SLGT RISK IN LATER OTLKS ONCE
MESOSCALE DETAILS ARE BETTER KNOWN.
..RACY.. 07/14/2008
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