MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1652

ACUS11 KWNS 011620
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011619
NHZ000-MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-011845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1652
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1119 AM CDT TUE JUL 01 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN PA/NJ/SOUTHERN NY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 011619Z - 011845Z

AN ISOLATED/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUST THREAT WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN PA/NJ/SOUTHERN NY
INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED
MARGINAL/ISOLATED NATURE OF THE RISK...A SEVERE TSTM WATCH IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AT MIDDAY REFLECTS DEEPENING BOUNDARY
LAYER CUMULUS ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PA/SOUTHEAST NY INTO
CT/MA...AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY BEING REACHED /AROUND
80F PER ALBANY AND NEW YORK CITY 12Z OBSERVED RAOBS/ AMIDST AMPLE
INSOLATION. WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN
MODEST...TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP/INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN PA/NJ/SOUTHERN NY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON OWING TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AND A WARM/MOIST AND MODESTLY UNSTABLE/WEAKLY CAPPED BOUNDARY
LAYER. WITH LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN MOST LOCALES...MODIFIED
12Z RAOBS IN CONJUNCTION WITH LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL
FOR MLCAPE TO 500-900 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. WITH RELATIVELY COOL MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-AROUND -14C AT 500 MB/ IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH...STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AFOREMENTIONED
MODEST BUOYANCY ARE SUGGESTIVE OF A SEVERE HAIL RISK. SOME GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL OWING TO A WARM/WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER. MARGINAL NATURE OF THE TOTAL BUOYANCY AND MODEST/LARGELY
UNIDIRECTIONAL VERTICAL SHEAR OF 30-35 KT SUGGEST THE OVERALL THREAT
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED/MARGINAL IN NATURE...AND THUS A WATCH
IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

..GUYER.. 07/01/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...

40047456 39777552 39987684 41007645 42367472 42997134
41587103 40847377

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