MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1657

ACUS11 KWNS 020003
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020002
MTZ000-WYZ000-020200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1657
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0702 PM CDT TUE JUL 01 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS MT AND EXTREME N-CENTRAL WY.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 648...

VALID 020002Z - 020200Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 648
CONTINUES.

SCATTERED TSTMS ARE UNDERWAY CROSS LARGE AREA OF NWRN THROUGH
S-CENTRAL MT. WHILE MOST INTENSE CELLS AMONG ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY
MAY PRODUCE SVR HAIL/GUSTS...BEST POTENTIAL FOR CONCENTRATED SVR
NEXT 2-3 HOURS SHOULD BE IN FORM OF DAMAGING WIND...WITH LINE OF
CONVECTION ORGANIZING ACROSS CARBON/SWEET GRASS/STILLWATER COUNTIES
AT 2345Z. EARLIER TSTM IN NRN PORTION OF THAT ACTIVITY PRODUCED 53
KT MEASURED SVR GUST AT LVM AT 2255Z. AS CONVECTION BECOMES BETTER
ORGANIZED...COLLECTIVE COLD POOL MAY CONTRIBUTE TO EVOLUTION OF
FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS ACROSS BIL AND ADJACENT PORTIONS S-CENTRAL
MT. ELY AND NELY SFC WINDS IN FOREGOING AIR MASS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
FAVORABLE STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW...ALONG GENERALLY E-W ALIGNED
BUOYANCY AXIS EVIDENT OVER S-CENTRAL MT.
MEANWHILE...DEEP/WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER EVIDENT IN MODIFIED RUC
SOUNDINGS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DAMAGING GUST THREAT.

FARTHER S ACROSS NRN WY...EARLIER/OROGRAPHIC CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPED ALONG E SIDE OF BIGHORNS NEAR SHR HAS WEAKENED AND LEFT
BEHIND OUTFLOW-INDUCED MESOHIGH. MEANWHILE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
HAS FORMED FARTHER S ALONG SRN FRINGES OF THAT RANGE...AND ALONG ERN
FRINGE OF OUTFLOW POOL OVER ERN SHR COUNTY. NEWER ACTIVITY ALSO MAY
POSE THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL/GUSTS NEAR SVR LEVELS.
HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF WEAKENING VERTICAL SHEAR WITH SWD
EXTENT...AND FCST LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE OF ADDITIONAL TSTMS OVER
SRN BIGHORNS...INDICATE ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT LIKELY S OF PRESENT
AREA OVER N-CENTRAL WY.

..EDWARDS.. 07/02/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...

44960943 45981008 46761128 47331178 48281138 48901058
48910826 48000838 47760893 47540788 46800795 46780606
45310631 45120567 44590536 43680586 43440671 43940699
44650741 44980793

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