MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1672

ACUS11 KWNS 022325
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022324
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-030100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1672
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0624 PM CDT WED JUL 02 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA..SRN WI...NRN IL..NRN IND..SRN MI..NWRN OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 654...

VALID 022324Z - 030100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 654
CONTINUES.

WELL DEFINED BOW ECHO IS ACCELERATING SEWD AT 35-40 KT ACROSS SERN
LOWER MI AT 23Z AND WILL MOVE ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF DETROIT METRO
AND INTO WRN LAKE ERIE DURING THE NEXT HOUR...WITH ATTENDANT
INCREASE IN DAMAGING WIND THREAT. TRAILING THIS BOW ECHO...INTENSE
CELLS ARE TRAINING ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH PRIMARY THREATS OF
LARGE HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL/LOCAL FLASH FLOODING. OVERALL
NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS INDICATES SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MUCH MORE
LIMITED WITH SWD AND EWD EXTENT THIS EVENING...DESPITE ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL FROM STRONGER CORES WITHIN LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME OVER NRN
IND THIS EVENING.

WWD ALONG COMPOSITE SURFACE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...STORMS HAVE WEAKENED
A BIT OVER THE PAST HOUR INTO NRN IL/SWRN WI AHEAD OF PRIMARY
SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING SEWD AS AIR MASS APPEARS TO HAVE
UNDERGONE EXTENSIVE OVERTURNING IN THE PAST FEW HOURS.
HOWEVER...POCKETS OF MARGINAL TO MODERATE CAPE WILL LIKELY SUSTAIN A
THREAT OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AS FRONT SAGS SEWD
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING.

ACROSS ERN IA...SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS INCREASED STORM
COVERAGE/INTENSITY EARLY THIS EVENING WITHIN NARROW AXIS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY. SHEAR ACROSS THIS REGION IS WEAKER THAN ERN PORTIONS
OF THE WW...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE WITH MORE INTENSE CORES FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS
FROM S-CENTRAL INTO ERN IA.

..EVANS.. 07/02/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

40469392 39239399 38439453 38099546 38439623 39399680
40349596 40869486

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