SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060115
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-060215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1693
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0815 PM CDT SAT JUL 05 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND AND NW MN
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 659...
VALID 060115Z - 060215Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 659 CONTINUES.
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS
FOR THE REMAINING VALID PERIOD OF WW 659. GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THIS WATCH WHERE
STRONGER FORCING WILL TEND TO SUPPORT CONTINUED WEAKENING OF
INHIBITION INTO NW MN AND AID IN MAINTAINING SURFACE BASED
DEVELOPMENT.
REGIONAL VAD DATA/OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE
CONTINUED TO VEER TO SW/WLY ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS WITH THE
STRONGEST PORTION OF THE SWLY LLJ EXTENDING FROM NW MN INTO CANADA.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN A DECREASING TREND OF EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES/
ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT WITH WWD EXTENT ACROSS THE WATCH.
MEANWHILE...FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL IMPULSE
SKIRTING THIS REGION AND STRONGER FRONTOGENETIC FORCING APPEAR TO BE
AIDING RECENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT THAT NOW EXTENDED NWD ALONG THE
PRIMARY WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY FROM BENSON COUNTY ND INTO CENTRAL
MANITOBA. STRONGER CAPPING WITH SWD EXTENT PER 00Z ABR SOUNDING
SHOULD LIMIT ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT INTO SRN/SERN ND THIS
EVENING.
..PETERS.. 07/06/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...
48999517 47439582 46089626 45859682 45879992 46609996
47149963 47939933 49029884
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