Wednesday, July 9, 2008

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1744

ACUS11 KWNS 100314
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100313
NEZ000-100445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1744
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1013 PM CDT WED JUL 09 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...NW NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 100313Z - 100445Z

AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT MAY CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS ACROSS NW
AND WCNTRL NEB. THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO MARGINAL TO
WARRANT A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH ATTM.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WRN NEB.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING NEAR THE AXIS OF THE SHORTWAVE
IN A MODERATE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE RUC INDICATES MLCAPE VALUES
RANGE FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG ALONG AN AXIS FROM NEAR RAPID CITY SD
SEWD TO NEAR ONEILL NEB. AS A LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS QUICKLY OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY EXPAND
IN COVERAGE BUT MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ACROSS NW NEB CURRENTLY SHOW ABOUT 40 KT OF SHEAR WHICH WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ROTATING STORMS. IN ADDITION...RUC ANALYSIS HAS
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL NEB SUGGESTING A
THREAT FOR HAIL WILL EXIST AS THE STORMS MOVE SEWD ALONG THE
INSTABILITY AXIS LATE THIS EVENING.

..BROYLES.. 07/10/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...

42860122 42740234 42280262 41180148 41150050 41559970
42189962 42700063

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