Saturday, July 12, 2008

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1773

ACUS11 KWNS 122358
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122357
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-130130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1773
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0657 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...OK...NW AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 688...

VALID 122357Z - 130130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 688
CONTINUES.

AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE OVER WW 688 FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL. THE SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD BE WELL CONTAINED WITHIN THE WATCH AND A NEW WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED LATER THIS EVENING.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT ORIENTED SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS WRN AND NRN OK EXTENDING EWD INTO SRN MO WITH
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...RUC GUIDANCE INDICATES MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS
IN PLACE WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. THIS
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO FUEL A LINEAR MCS SWD ACROSS SCNTRL OK AND ERN
OK THIS EVENING. THE WSR-88D VWPS FROM OKLAHOMA CITY AND TULSA SHOW
ABOUT 35 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR MAINLY DUE TO SPEED SHEAR ABOVE 3 KM.
IN ADDITION...RUC DATA HAS A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CNTRL OK. THIS ALONG WITH THE
SHEAR MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED HAILSTORMS. WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH BOWING SEGMENTS IN THE LINE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST OK WHERE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP ATTM.

..BROYLES.. 07/12/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

34619693 34649717 34519714 34489756 33919752 33959766
33849790 34039810 34149813 34189831 34069839 34079852
34199879 34189916 34419930 34349965 34479985 34519964
34709964 34729946 34829934 35049937 36169941 36179896
36509895 36409860 36459850 36449807 36589808 36579708
36709710 36759696 36799673 36989673 36989580 36629587
36629535 36549532 36539505 36719504 36709468 36489460
36479325 36119331 36129346 35809346 35779366 35439370
35289384 35009429 34909443 34489445 34509490 34709491
34719548 34589550 34599592 34699592 34709615 34789613
34789641 34959640 34969687 34849691

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