SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190145
SDZ000-NEZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-190345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1810
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0845 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST MT/NORTHEAST WY INTO WESTERN SD/FAR
SOUTHERN ND/NORTHERN NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 699...700...
VALID 190145Z - 190345Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
699...700...CONTINUES.
SEVERE TSTM WATCHES 699/700 CONTINUE UNTIL 03Z/06Z
RESPECTIVELY...ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO WANE FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS WW 699 AND EARLY CANCELLATION MAY EVENTUALLY BE
WARRANTED. IN ADDITION TO SEVERE HAIL...WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL MAY
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS WESTERN SD.
CLUSTER OF STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUE TO EXPAND/SPREAD
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE MT/WY/SD BORDER AREA INTO DEWEY COUNTY
SD WEST OF MOBRIDGE AS OF 0130Z. FURTHER CONGLOMERATION OF THESE
EXISTING TSTMS APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL SD OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...WITH POTENTIAL UPSCALE EVOLUTION INTO ONE PRIMARY
EAST-SOUTHEAST ADVANCING SEVERE MCS AMIDST A STRONGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT PER 00Z RAPID CITY RAOB /50+ KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR/ AND
REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS FEATURES A ROUGHLY
WEST-EAST ORIENTED WAVY FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM NEAR AN EAST
CENTRAL WY SURFACE LOW INTO CENTRAL SD...WITH LOWER 60S F SURFACE
DEWPOINTS COINCIDENT WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS SD. THE EVOLVING
MCS/S WILL LIKELY FAVOR A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT ALONG/JUST NORTH OF
THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE FRONT...WHERE MOIST/UNSTABLE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT FURTHER
UPSCALE GROWTH/FORWARD PROPAGATION. ACTIVITY WILL BE FURTHER AIDED
BY AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET/INCREASING ELEVATED
MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME THIS EVENING. FARTHER SOUTH...ANOTHER
SMALL SEVERE CLUSTER OF TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE SD/NEB
BORDER AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WHERE A 51 KT SEVERE GUST
WAS RECENTLY MEASURED /0128Z/ AT PINE RIDGE SD. FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION COULD PROMPT A REPLACEMENT WATCH FOR WW 700 INTO
NORTHERN NEB /AND MORE OF CENTRAL SD/.
..GUYER.. 07/19/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...
45140554 45910318 45540027 44009980 42599942 42740283
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