SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210058
NEZ000-SDZ000-210230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1832
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 711...
VALID 210058Z - 210230Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 711
CONTINUES.
AN ADDITIONAL WW WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED EAST OF WW 711 LATER THIS
EVENING.
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF THE STORM CLUSTER NOW DEVELOPING NORTH/
NORTHEAST OF ALLIANCE APPEARS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS IN A BAND ALONG AN EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA...BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...IS
CONTRIBUTING TO LARGE CAPE. AND...DEEP LAYER SHEAR...DESPITE MODEST
NATURE OF FLOW FIELDS /WESTERLY UP TO 30 KT AT AROUND 500 MB/...IS
STRONG DUE TO PRONOUNCED VEERING OF DIRECTION FROM
EASTERLY/SOUTHERLY AT LOWER-LEVELS. ZONE OF FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE...PERHAPS COUPLED WITH A DIVERGENT FLOW FIELD
IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A HIGH LEVEL JET STREAK NOSING INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...PROVIDES POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL UPSCALE
GROWTH. AS THIS OCCURS IN A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR
STRONG COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT...LARGE HAIL/DOWNBURST THREAT MAY
TRANSITION TO A BROADER SCALE DAMAGING WIND EVENT BETWEEN NOW AND
03-04Z...WHEN ACTIVITY MAY BEGIN SPREADING EAST OF CURRENT WW.
..KERR.. 07/21/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...LBF...UNR...
41860211 42600183 43360189 43279836 42439645 41809748
41920086
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