SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240109
NEZ000-KSZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-240245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1886
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0809 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN SD/MUCH OF NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 240109Z - 240245Z
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EXPAND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...POSSIBLY
REQUIRING WW ISSUANCE.
OBJECTIVE ANALYSES CONTINUE TO INDICATED AN AXIS OF STRONG
INSTABILITY LYING NW-SE ACROSS NEB...AHEAD OF
SCATTERED/SEMI-ORGANIZED STORMS ONGOING INVOF THE NEB PANHANDLE.
THE EVENING NORTH PLATTE NEB RAOB CONFIRMS THE DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY...WITH NEARLY 4000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE OBSERVED.
DESPITE THE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS...MID-LEVEL FLOW /NEAR 15 KT
PER THE NORTH PLATTE SOUNDING AND AREA VWP DATA/ IS SUPPORTING ONLY
MARGINAL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...CONFIRMED BY THE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED
NATURE OF THE ONGOING STORMS. HOWEVER...WITH THE DEVELOPING LLJ
LIKELY TO FUEL BOTH AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AS WELL AS A
FURTHER INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY BECOME
SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT NEW WW ISSUANCE.
..GOSS.. 07/24/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...UNR...BOU...
40650195 41560262 43190202 43280102 42609875 40689682
39999745 40339993
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