Monday, July 28, 2008

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1952

ACUS11 KWNS 290147
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290147
SDZ000-NDZ000-290315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1952
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0847 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH ERN SD

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 767...

VALID 290147Z - 290315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 767 CONTINUES.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS MAINLY OVER EXTREME ERN PARTS OF WW 767 AND FARTHER EAST INTO
ERN SD. SHORT TERM TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED ACROSS ERN SD FOR A
POSSIBLE WW.

A STORM HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG BOUNDARY ACROSS E CNTRL SD JUST
EAST OF PIERRE. INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WITH ONSET OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING AND LIMITED LARGE SCALE FORCING SUGGEST
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION FARTHER WEST OVER MUCH OF REMAINING PARTS OF
WW 767 MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT...AND COVERAGE WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN ISOLATED.

FARTHER SE...MERGING CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS PERSISTS ACROSS SERN
SD. SOME POSSIBILITY EXISTS THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO
PROPAGATE EWD ALONG ITS DEVELOPING COLD POOL. POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS
FOR OTHER STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG NW-SE BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS NERN
SD AS STRENGTHENING SWLY LOW LEVEL JET ENHANCES LIFT IN THIS REGION.
THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE OVER ERN SD WITH 35-40 KT BULK
SHEAR SO ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE.

..DIAL.. 07/29/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR...

45950101 45739924 45299711 43729686 42989755 43249882
43680028 43900122 44720156 45780180

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