SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310550
MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-310715-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1970
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...ND INTO NORTHERN/EASTERN SD AND WESTERN MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 777...
VALID 310550Z - 310715Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 777
CONTINUES.
SEVERE TSTM WATCH 777 CONTINUES UNTIL 10Z ACROSS ND...WITH A RISK OF
DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE HAIL. WITH A SEVERE THREAT LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...AN ADDITIONAL SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL LIKELY
BE ISSUED SOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/EASTERN SD...AND PERHAPS
INTO WESTERN/SOUTHWEST MN.
35-KT SOUTHEAST MOVING QUASI-LINEAR MCS CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ND EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT...WHERE SEVERE WINDS
HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED NEAR/NORTH OF THE BISMARCK AREA /50 KT AT
KBIS AT 0541Z/...ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL /2.5 INCHES/. WITH
SASKATCHEWAN SHORTWAVE TROUGH GLANCING THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND AN
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN SD PER RUC FORECASTS...IT SEEMS LIKELY A
SEVERE MCS WILL CONTINUE TO THRIVE ON THE PERIPHERY OF A STRONG
CAP/ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT /AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY GRADIENT/ ORIENTED
NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL ND INTO EASTERN SD/FAR SOUTHERN
MN...THE STRONGEST PORTION OF THE MCS SHOULD PREFERENTIALLY FAVOR A
SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION INTO NORTHERN/EASTERN SD...AND PERHAPS
EVENTUALLY WESTERN/SOUTHWEST MN.
..GUYER.. 07/31/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR...
46020224 47000195 47900020 46629651 44319492 43339594
43369791 43719994 45000171
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