SWODY1
SPC AC 101618
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1118 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2008
VALID 101630Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF NC/VA INTO THE
NEW ENGLAND/LOWER GREAT LAKES...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PART OF THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS...
...NC/VA ACROSS MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO SRN/WRN NEW ENGLAND...
UNSEASONABLY STRONG/COLD MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE EWD
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY...WITH ASSOCIATED STRENGTHENING
WLY FLOW ALOFT OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SWD
INTO NC. LARGE HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO TO
TWO CAN BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY IF STORMS CAN ORGANIZE INTO
LINES/SUPERCELLS INVOF THE STRONGER SHEAR FROM THE MID ATLANTIC SWD.
POCKET OF UNSEASONABLY COLD MID LEVEL AIR OBSERVED ON AREA SOUNDINGS
WILL MAINTAIN ACTIVE DAY OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...DESPITE THE
MODEST LOW LEVEL THETA-E AIR IN PLACE. WILL LIKELY SEE AXIS OF
1000+ J/KG MLCAPE DEVELOP NWD ACROSS MUCH OF ERN PA/NY AND WRN/SRN
NEW ENGLAND...ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN MODEST IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO APPROACHING UPPER LOW. VERY COLD MID LEVEL AIR AND
SURFACE HEATING SHOULD ALLOW ADDITIONAL...MORE WEAKLY ORGANIZED
DEVELOPMENT TO FORM EWD AWAY FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. GREATER
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED SWD ACROSS MD/DE/ERN VA/NC...THOUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON MOIST CONVECTION NOW OVER CENTRAL NC/SERN VA WILL DELAY
INSTABILITY ACROSS PARTS OF THIS AREA. IN ADDITION...DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE STRONGER ACROSS THIS REGION INVOF 40-50 KT WLY MID
LEVEL JET.
...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EWD TODAY
AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING MID LEVEL IMPULSE SPREADING EWD ACROSS WY ON
MORNING WV IMAGERY. INCREASING ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL
INTERACT WITH DEVELOPING MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD SUPPORT GENERAL INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS FROM
PARTS OF ERN WY NWD INTO ERN MT/WRN ND. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT CAN
BE EXPECTED INVOF SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL MT
LATER TODAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN MODERATE TO WEAK...BUT
SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR WEAKLY ORGANIZED LINES/CLUSTERS WITH
THREATS OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS.
...SE OK/ARKLATEX/E TX...
MODERATE TO STRONG HEATING WITHIN VERY MOIST AIR MASS SOUTH OF
WEAKENING MCS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW OVER PARTS
OF OK INTO SRN AR. WITH SFC TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH 100F S OF
THE FRONT...WARM SECTOR STORMS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE RELATIVELY
HIGH-BASED. COUPLED WITH HIGH /NEARLY 2 INCH/ PW ACROSS
REGION...SETUP COULD SUPPORT ISOLD DAMAGING MICROBURSTS.
HOWEVER...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE BRIEF-LIVED FROM INDIVIDUAL CORES
AS MID LEVEL FLOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS QUITE WEAK.
..EVANS/SMITH.. 08/10/2008
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