SWODY1
SPC AC 181603
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1103 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2008
VALID 181630Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SOUTH FL...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NY AND NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND...
...NY/NEW ENGLAND...
UPPER TROUGH OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY THIS
MORNING...WITH PRIMARY COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SWEEP INTO NY/NEW
ENGLAND AFTER DARK TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGEST SOME RISK OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
NORTHEAST NY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA INDICATE A RISK OF
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH THESE STORMS...ALTHOUGH GREATER
COVERAGE OF STRONG STORMS WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED UNTIL AFTER DARK
WHEN COLD FRONT APPROACHES REGION. A LINE OF STORMS MAY ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT...MAINTAINING THE RISK OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THROUGH
ABOUT 06Z.
...FL...
TROPICAL STORM FAY REMAINS RATHER DISORGANIZED THIS MORNING SOUTH OF
EYW...BUT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
VAD WIND PROFILES AT EYW/MFL SUGGEST LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO
INCREASE OVER NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF SYSTEM. THIS...COUPLED WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF
OCCASIONAL BRIEF TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
...NM/TX...
CUTOFF UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS OF KS/OK/TX. VERTICAL SHEAR TO THE SOUTH
OF THE LOW HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...AND LESS TERRAIN
EFFECTS SHOULD DECREASE THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF STRONG STORMS TODAY.
NEVERTHELESS...BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF
LOW WILL RESULT IN POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SOME RISK OF
HAIL/GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER PARTS OF NM/TX.
...WA/ORE...
UPPER PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...WITH SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS LIFTING NORTHWARD ALONG
THE COAST. CONSIDERABLE MORNING CONVECTION HAS RESULTED IN
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS OVER PARTS OF THE AREA...LESSENING THREAT OF
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS
LIKELY THAT STORMS WILL RE-DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ORE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG AND EAST OF THE CASCADES WHERE
DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED OVER YESTERDAY. INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR
AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF GUSTY WINDS
AND HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS.
..HART/JEWELL.. 08/18/2008
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