SWODY1
SPC AC 201601
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1101 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2008
VALID 201630Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER NORTHEAST FL AND COASTAL
GA...
...FL/GA...
TROPICAL STORM FAY IS NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE EAST CENTRAL COAST
OF FL. LOCAL VAD PROFILES SUGGEST THE STRONGEST AREA OF VERTICAL
SHEAR IS OFFSHORE AT THIS TIME...AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN THAT WAY
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. LATER TONIGHT...THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
BEGIN MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD BACK ACROSS THE PENINSULA. THIS MAY
RESULT IN A RENEWED THREAT OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES OVER
NORTHEAST FL AND COASTAL GA.
...NM/TX...
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING IS OCCURRING TODAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
CENTRAL NM/CO. THIS WILL HELP TO RAPIDLY DESTABILIZE REGION...WITH
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTRIBUTING TO AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES
OF 1500 J/KG. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER
THIS AREA AND TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
VERTICAL SHEAR IS MARGINAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.
HOWEVER...A FEW STRONGER CELLS MAY PRODUCE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS.
..HART/HURLBUT.. 08/20/2008
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