SWODY1
SPC AC 091257
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 AM CDT SAT AUG 09 2008
VALID 091300Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF MI AND THE LWR
GRT LKS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NRN RCKYS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER S FL...
...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFIED...SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY.
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO TX...WHILE UPR
LOW AND TROUGH OFF THE PAC NW CST MOVE ENE INTO BC/WA/ORE. IN THE
EAST...SEASONABLY STRONG/COMPACT CLOSED SYSTEM NOW APPROACHING LK
SUPERIOR SHOULD CONTINUE SE TO GEORGIAN BAY THIS EVE...BEFORE
NEARING THE WRN END OF LK ONTARIO EARLY SUNDAY. ELSEWHERE...WEAKER
DISTURBANCE NOW IN ERN CO EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SE INTO KS/OK...
ALONG NE FRINGE OF UPR RIDGE.
AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT WITH GRT LKS SYSTEM WILL MOVE GENERALLY S
ACROSS LWR MI AND THE UPR MS VLY TODAY...WHILE FRONT WITH PAC TROUGH
REACHES NW MT AND CNTRL ID BY EVE. A WEAKER FRONT WILL CONTINUE
SLOWLY S ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AND THE NRN GULF...WHILE WRN PART
OF SAME BOUNDARY REDEVELOPS NEWD AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS KS...OK AND
THE ARKLATEX.
...LWR MI TO LWR GRT LKS...
MODERATE INSTABILITY /SBCAPE TO 1500 J PER KG/ SHOULD DEVELOP WITH
SFC HEATING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT IN LWR MI AND ADJACENT PARTS OF
ONTARIO/LK ERIE LATER TODAY. MODEST DEWPOINTS WILL LIMIT DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION. BUT COMBINATION OF FAIRLY STRONG FORCING FOR
ASCENT ...COOL MID LVL TEMPERATURES...AND MODERATE/DEEP
UNIDIRECTIONAL WNW FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF A
SUSTAINED...SWD-MOVING BAND OF STORMS BY EARLY AFTN. EMBEDDED
BOWING SEGMENTS COULD YIELD DMGG WIND IN ADDITION TO MARGINALLY SVR
HAIL...ESPECIALLY OVER SE LWR MI/LK ERIE AND ADJACENT PARTS OF SW
ONTARIO. THE STORMS SHOULD REACH NRN OH/NW PA/WRN NY BY EVE...WITH
A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLD DMGG WIND.
...NE WA/CNTRL AND NRN ID/WRN MT...
SEASONABLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW NEARING THE ORE CST WILL
ACCELERATE NE ACROSS ORE/WA LATER TODAY AND ASSUME A NEGATIVE TILT
AS LARGER SCALE TROUGH CONTINUES E/NE INTO BC. SATELLITE AND GPS
DATA SHOW CURRENT PW AROUND 1 INCH IN ERN WA AND NRN ID...WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS REGION ALSO LEFT FAIRLY MOIST BY RECENT
STORMS. PROXIMITY OF UPR LOW WILL KEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES
STEEP...AND LOW LVL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN TODAY WITH MODERATE TO
STRONG SFC HEATING. TAKEN TOGETHER...SETUP SHOULD YIELD INCREASING
INSTABILITY...WITH SBCAPE APPROACHING 1000-1500
J/KG AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING EJECTING TROUGH.
TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY AFTN ALONG AND
AHEAD OF FRONT AS OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES COMBINE WITH FRONTAL
UPLIFT AND STRONG DPVA. 40+ KT DEEP SSW TO SWLY SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS. THESE LIKELY WILL EVOLVE INTO ONE OR
MORE CLUSTERS/BANDS...WITH BOWING SEGMENTS POSING A THREAT FOR DMGG
WIND...SVR HAIL...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO THROUGH THIS EVE.
...S FL...
UPR TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVING S ACROSS CNTRL/S FL WILL
SUPPORT DIURNALLY ENHANCED TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF
THE FL PENINSULA TODAY...WHERE SBCAPE SHOULD REACH 3000 J/KG.
MODERATE UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW AND STEEPENING LOW LVL LAPSE RATES
SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF STORMS WITH DMGG WIND.
...CNTRL/SRN PLNS...
HEATING ON FRINGE OF OVERNIGHT MCS IN KS WILL YIELD MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY...WITH POCKETS OF SBCAPE AOA 2000 J/KG BY LATE
AFTN. WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE PRESENT AS AFOREMENTIONED
CNTRL PLNS UPR IMPULSE CONTINUES SEWD. COMBINATION OF
HEATING...WEAK LARGE SCALE UVV...AND UPLIFT ALONG MCS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY/FRONTAL SEGMENT MAY SUPPORT A PERIOD OF STRONG TO BRIEFLY
SVR STORMS OVER PARTS OF SRN/WRN KS AND NRN OK LATE THIS AFTN.
THESE MAY MERGE INTO A SMALL...SSE-MOVING MCS THIS EVENING. MODEST
DEEP SHEAR AND WEAK MID LVL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL SVR
THREAT...ALTHOUGH HIGH PWS COULD YIELD A FEW WET MICROBURSTS,
...NRN HI PLNS...
MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW INTO SE MT/ERN WY BENEATH ERN EXTENT OF STEEPER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH
AFTN STORM DEVELOPMENT LIKELY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MODEST DEEP
SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION/LONGEVITY. BUT ISOLD
HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL POSSIBLE AS THE STORMS SPREAD ESE INTO
THE WRN DAKS...WRN NEB AND NE CO THIS EVE. A FEW STRONG TO SVR
STORMS ORIGINATING IN WRN MT DURING THE AFTN MAY ALSO MOVE INTO
CNTRL/ERN MT TONIGHT.
...SWRN U.S...
PW VALUES WILL REMAIN VERY HIGH FROM SW NM INTO MUCH OF AZ/THE SRN
CA DESERTS AND SRN NV. PW MAY BE LOCALLY ENHANCED NEAR APPARENT
REMNANT MID LVL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. EDOUARD /NOW IN SW
NM/. DEEP FLOW ACROSS REGION...HOWEVER...WILL BE VERY WEAK NEAR
CENTER OF UPR HIGH. MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP IN AREAS OF
STRONGER HEATING ON FRINGES OF MOISTURE PLUME...I.E. OVER PARTS OF
SE CA/SRN NV AND NRN AZ/SW UT. THESE AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE LOCALLY
DMGG WIND GUSTS. OTHERWISE...WEAK SHEAR AND HIGH PWS SUGGEST HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER THREAT IN SRN AZ.
..CORFIDI/HURLBUT.. 08/09/2008
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