SWODY1
SPC AC 171957
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0257 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2008
VALID 172000Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NORTHERN CA/WEST CENTRAL
ORE...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO/NORTHEAST
NM...
...NORTHERN CA/ORE/WA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FEATURES MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS LIFTING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS DEWPOINTS OVER WESTERN ORE AND NORTHERN CA IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S...WHICH ARE CONTRIBUTING TO SBCAPE VALUES OF AROUND
1000-1500 J/KG ALONG THE CASCADES PER RUC-BASED OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS NORTHERN CA/WEST
CENTRAL ORE. HAIL/GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
TSTMS.
...AZ/NM/CO/WEST TX...
HAVE UPGRADED PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CO/NORTHEAST NM TO A SLIGHT
RISK. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER CO
TODAY...WITH A BELT OF MODERATELY STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST MID LEVEL
FLOW OVERSPREADING THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS. WITH AMPLE HEATING BENEATH THE EAST-SURGING MID LEVEL
DRY SLOT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/INCREASE
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO/NM/AZ THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST TSTMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND
AND PERHAPS A ROGUE TORNADO INTO EARLY EVENING.
...GREAT LAKES...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. FAVORABLE
DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT AHEAD OF
THIS TROUGH...LEADING TO SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS MAINLY OVER
PARTS OF ONTARIO TODAY. NEVERTHELESS...TRAILING END OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY MAY AFFECT PARTS OF NORTHERN MN LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. ALSO...A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY FORM OVER WI/LOWER MI LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. BUT...LACK OF LOW LEVEL FORCING/MARGINAL VERTICAL
SHEAR SUGGEST THAT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF STRONG STORMS DOES NOT
WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK.
...GA/SC AND NORTHERN FL...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FEATURES WEAK/SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW MIGRATING
EASTWARD OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STRONGER
TSTMS COULD YET PRODUCE ISOLATED/MARGINALLY SEVERE WINDS/HAIL
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...BUT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.
...FL KEYS...
TROPICAL STORM FAY WILL NOT BEGIN TO APPROACH THE FL KEYS UNTIL THE
DAY 2 PERIOD/MONDAY. HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS NEAR OUTER
BANDS OF FAY MAY INCREASE THE RISK OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO LATE
TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER 06Z.
..GUYER.. 08/17/2008
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment