SWODY2
SPC AC 180531
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1231 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2008
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL NOT PROVE PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR
WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD.
STRONG FORCING WILL SPREAD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ENHANCING
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL MAINLY OFFSHORE...WHILE MOISTURE WILL BE
SOMEWHAT LIMITED OVER THE NRN ROCKIES IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SPEED MAX.
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE NWD MOVEMENT OF
FAY INTO CNTRL FL WHERE LANDFALL IS EXPECTED NEAR TPA.
...FL...
A GRADUAL NWD TURN IS EXPECTED AS FAY CROSSES THE CUBAN PENINSULA
INTO THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO WHERE INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED
BEFORE LANDFALL NEAR TPA. AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FL
PENINSULA...HOWEVER A SLIGHT RISK MAY BE ADDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS TO
ACCOUNT FOR ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT AS SHEAR PROFILES INCREASE
ACROSS THIS REGION.
...NRN ROCKIES...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LEAD SPEED MAX WILL EJECT AHEAD OF MAIN
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS ID INTO WRN MT TUESDAY. GIVEN THE MEAGER
MOISTURE ACROSS THIS REGION...FOCUSED SUSTAINED ASCENT WILL PROVE
INSTRUMENTAL IN COOLING/MOISTENING THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FOR
POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS TIME IT DOES APPEAR
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE FOR A SMALL ZONE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF NRN ID INTO WRN MT.
STORM MOTIONS MAY ALLOW A FEW OF THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS TO MOVE OFF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF NRN MT BEFORE ACTIVITY
DIMINISHES IN INTENSITY. GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREATS
WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
...ELSEWHERE...
TRAILING FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND INTO WRN PA/WV WILL
SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL NOT
PROVE PARTICULARLY CONVERGENT IN THE WAKE OF EXITING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. AS A RESULT...STRONG HEATING MAY BE THE PRIMARY INSTIGATOR
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. EVEN SO...MARGINAL SHEAR AND SPARSE
COVERAGE WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL.
WEAKENING UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...PARTICULARLY
NM...WILL RESULT IN MORE FEEBLE AND SPARSE UPDRAFTS ON THE BACK SIDE
OF TX LOW. FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES STILL SUGGEST WEAK ROTATION IS
POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS...HOWEVER MEAGER INSTABILITY IN THE
ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DOES NOT FAVOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
..DARROW.. 08/18/2008
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