Thursday, August 21, 2008

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 211729
SWODY2
SPC AC 211727

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2008

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
T.S. FAY IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLOWLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE
MOVING WNWWD ACROSS NRN FL AND COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE FL PANHANDLE.
ELSEWHERE...A MID-LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER ERN
OK/AR/SRN MO...WHILE A STRONGER LOW/TROUGH MOVES ENEWD/NEWD FROM THE
NRN HIGH PLAINS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND CANADIAN PRAIRIE TO WRN
ONTARIO/THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN U.S./CANADA UPPER
SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS EWD/SEWD WITH TIME...EVENTUALLY MOVING EWD
ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE WRN UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND
SEWD INTO THE MID MO VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...N CENTRAL CONUS...
AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION ALONG SEWD-MOVING FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON...FROM MN SWWD INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WHILE STRONG /70-PLUS KT/ MID-LEVEL JET STREAK
WILL ACCOMPANY THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH...STRONGER FLOW SHOULD REMAIN TO
THE COOL SIDE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IN GENERAL. ONE EXCEPTION MAY
BE ACROSS MN...WHERE STRONGER WIND FIELD MAY SPREAD ATOP THE
IMMEDIATE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. IN THIS REGION
THOUGH...QUESTIONS REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR AMPLE DESTABILIZATION
PRECLUDE AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK ATTM. ELSEWHERE...FORECAST
CAPE/SHEAR COMBINATION SUGGESTS ONLY A LOW-PROBABILITY THREAT FOR
HAIL/WIND WITH A FEW STRONGER CELLS.

...NRN FL AND THE FL PANHANDLE/SRN GA...
LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NHC PROG FAY TO MOVE WNWWD ACROSS NRN FL
AND THE COASTAL FL PANHANDLE WHILE WEAKENING WITH TIME. DESPITE THE
FORECAST WEAKENING...AMPLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD PERSIST WITHIN THE
NERN QUADRANT OF THE STORM TO SUPPORT A VERY LIMITED THREAT FOR
ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADOES. THOUGH THE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH THIS
PERIOD...WILL MAINTAIN LOW /5%/ PROBABILITY THIS FORECAST.

..GOSS.. 08/21/2008

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