SWODY2
SPC AC 190531
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1231 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2008
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...FL...
TROPICAL STORM FAY IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NNEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL FL
PENINSULA...POSSIBLY MOVING OFFSHORE INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC BEFORE
CURVING BACK TOWARD THE SERN U.S. COAST. THIS TRACK FAVORS STRONGER
SHEAR EAST OF THE PENINSULA WHERE UPDRAFTS WILL HAVE SOMEWHAT HIGHER
POTENTIAL TO ROTATE...AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE TORNADOES. IF SUNSHINE
CAN WARM THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE PENINSULA THEN A FEW UPDRAFTS
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF/WEAK TORNADOES. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS THE INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A SLIGHT RISK.
...ELSEWHERE...
STRONG SPEED MAX WILL ROTATE INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE
NRN ROCKIES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
EJECT NEWD ACROSS MT INTO SASKATCHEWAN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THIS FEATURE WILL SERVE TO MOISTEN MID LEVELS RESULTING IN WEAK
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD EVOLVE ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS WITH COOLER AIRMASS OVER THE MOUNTAINS POSSIBLY
SUPPORTING LOWER BASED ACTIVITY. BOTH SCENARIOS HAVE TOO LITTLE
INSTABILITY TO WARRANT SEVERE PROBS DESPITE STRONG SHEAR.
WEAK UPPER LOW SHOULD EVENTUALLY EJECT NNEWD ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL
PLAINS DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIRMASS
SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES WILL ONLY BE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE DUE TO WEAK LAPSE RATES.
..DARROW.. 08/19/2008
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