SWODY2
SPC AC 230530
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2008
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...LOWER MS VALLEY...
TROPICAL STORM FAY IS FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TO
MOVE SLOWLY WWD ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS OF AL AND MS SUNDAY
MOVING INTO SE LA SUNDAY NIGHT. RAINBANDS WILL LIKELY EXTEND NWD
FROM THE CENTER INTO CNTRL AL AND CNTRL MS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION SUNDAY SHOW STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
PROFILES AND LOW-LCL HEIGHTS SUGGESTING CONDITIONS WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING STORMS WITH A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE. THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES MAY EXIST IN THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN INSTABILITY SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS PARTS OF
THE REGION.
...CNTRL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS SUNDAY WITH A LEE TROUGH IN PLACE FROM ERN WY SSEWD INTO ERN
CO. MODEL FORECASTS DEVELOP AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY ALONG THIS SFC
TROUGH BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN WY AND NERN CO MOVING EWD INTO
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE BY LATE AFTERNOON. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOW
SUBSTANTIAL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR RESULTING IN ABOUT 30 KT 0F 0-6 KM
SHEAR. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM...STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED
SEVERE THREAT WITH HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH THE
BETTER ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS.
..BROYLES.. 08/23/2008
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