SWODY2
SPC AC 281655
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2008
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
PRIMARY BELT OF WESTERLIES AND POLAR WAVE TRAIN WILL REMAIN CONFINED
TO CANADA AND THE NRN TIER OF STATES THROUGH THE DAY TWO PERIOD. IN
THE LOWER LATITUDES...A HIGHER MOMENTUM CHANNEL OF ELY FLOW WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE SWRN DESERTS...ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF ELONGATED
RIDGE AXIS.
...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MID SOUTH...
SURFACE FRONT INITIALLY OVER NERN NM WILL RETREAT NWD INTO ERN CO
FRIDAY WITH ERN EXTENSION OF BOUNDARY PUSHING SWD THROUGH THE MID MS
AND LOWER OH VALLEYS. THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ACROSS
THE MID SOUTH WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL
COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO YIELD MLCAPES APPROACHING 2500-3500
J/KG. OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE COMPARATIVELY
DRIER...BUT THE PRESENCE OF RATHER STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG.
DAYTIME HEATING AND SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON ALONG
LENGTH OF BOUNDARY. THE STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR /0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
OF 25-30 KT/ IS FORECAST OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WHERE
FORECAST HODOGRAPHS INDICATE PRONOUNCED VEERING THROUGH THE LOWEST
COUPLE OF KM. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES
SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. OVER
THE MID SOUTH...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER...BUT THE PRESENCE OF
THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY
MAY PROMOTE A FEW MORE INTENSE STORMS CAPABLE OF WET MICROBURST
ACTIVITY.
...SRN AZ...
AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOIST FRIDAY...PARTICULARLY OVER SWRN
AZ/SERN CA WHERE PW VALUES OF 1.75-2.00 INCHES WILL BE COMMON. THIS
MOISTURE WILL COINCIDE WITH THE SRN FRINGE OF STEEPER MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH AIR MASS BECOMING
MODERATELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J PER KG/ IN AREAS WHERE
MORNING CLOUDS DISSIPATE SOONEST. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...A ZONE OF
ENHANCED ELY MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST ACROSS REGION...RESULTING IN
30-35 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. AS SUCH...ENVIRONMENT WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS WHICH WILL MOVE/PROPAGATE WWD
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL
MAY ACCOMPANY THE MORE INTENSE STORMS.
..MEAD.. 08/28/2008
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